ELON
PHOENIXELON
4-2 | Road
88
APP STATE
MOUNTAINEERSAPP
4-3 | Home
53
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
PHOENIX
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Elon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ELON -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)
ELON By 1-7 points
26.2%
ELON By 8-14 points
16.9%
APP By 1-7 points
24.3%
APP By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Elon
60
ELON
App State
59
APP STATE
Simulated Score
Elon
62
ELON
App State
77
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
ELON @ APP
88 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.5% more
Elon: 15.9
vs
App State: 11.4
Turnovers (L5)
+25.0% more
Elon: 13.3
vs
App State: 10.0
Blocks (L5)
+11.7% more
Elon: 3.6
vs
App State: 3.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Elon: 42.8%
vs
App State: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ELON Score
60.0
88
APP Score
59.0
53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 42.8
26.0 / 28.0
Assists
11.4 / 15.9
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.6
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 48.8
35.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
65.8 / 66.7
48.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 32.6
25.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.5
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 13.3
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
APP
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
APP
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ELON
APP
ELON
ML
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
ATS
59%
19-13
55%
17-14
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
TTL
69%
22-10
52%
16-15
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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