Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Spartans UVAL @ NORF

VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG

DRAGONSUVAL

0-0  |  Road

79
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Joseph G. Echols Hall
View Odds Details →

NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

4-4  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
DRAGONS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-69.0
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +69.0 points (Norfolk State)
DragonsUVAL (-3.5) 0 SpartansNORF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

0.0%

Spartans Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NORF -69.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)

UVAL By 1-7 points

0.0%

UVAL By 8-14 points

0.0%

NORF By 1-7 points

0.0%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
38
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
107
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
42
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
98
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -69.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -56.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 UVAL @ NORF 79 - 136
Nov 6, 2024 UVAL @ NORF 60 - 104
Jan 15, 2024 UVAL @ NORF 73 - 118
Nov 7, 2022 UVAL @ NORF 59 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +224.0% more
Norfolk State: 3.2 vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 1.0
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Norfolk State: 35.4 vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 30.4
Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Norfolk State: 40.3% vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 29.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.2%
Norfolk State: 31.1% vs Virginia-Lynchburg: 20.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVAL Score 38.0 79
NORF Score 107.0 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 20.9 23.0 / 48.0
Assists 7.9 / 9.7 28.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.0 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 29.9 69.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 60.9 / 66.2 82.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 30.4 49.0 / 13.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.8 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 18.7 4.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVAL
--
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVAL
--
NORF Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVAL
--
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
UVAL
NORF
UVAL
ML
67% 20-10
78% 7-2
71% 20-8
100% 9-0
ATS
63% 19-11
78% 7-2
72% 21-8
100% 9-0
TTL
60% 18-12
44% 4-5
100% 29-0
100% 9-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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