SAN FRANCISCO STATE
GATORSSFST
0-0 | Road
46
SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
4-4 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
100%
HORNETS
0%
GATORS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Sacramento State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SFST By 1-7 points
0.0%
SFST By 8-14 points
0.0%
SAC By 1-7 points
0.1%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco State
60
SAN FRANCISCO STATE
Sacramento State
98
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
San Francisco State
68
SAN FRANCISCO STATE
Sacramento State
72
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
SFST @ SAC
46 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.2% more
Sacramento State: 3.2
vs
San Francisco State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+35.3% more
Sacramento State: 38.2
vs
San Francisco State: 28.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.2%
Sacramento State: 73.2%
vs
San Francisco State: 66.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
San Francisco State: 29.4%
vs
Sacramento State: 26.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFST Score
60.0
46
SAC Score
98.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.6 / 29.4
37.0 / 15.0
Assists
11.7 / 12.0
24.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.3
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
34.9 / 35.3
48.0 / 24.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 66.0
63.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 28.3
56.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.8 / 5.2
13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 14.0
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFST
--
SAC
Advantage
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFST
--
SAC
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SFST
--
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
SFST
SAC
SFST
ML
57%
17-13
100%
2-0
87%
26-4
100%
2-0
ATS
73%
22-8
100%
2-0
87%
27-4
100%
2-0
TTL
60%
18-12
50%
1-1
100%
31-0
100%
2-0
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