APP STATE
MOUNTAINEERSAPP
4-4 | Road
67
MERCER
BEARSMER
4-2 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
BEARS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (App State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APP -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)
APP By 1-7 points
0.0%
APP By 8-14 points
0.1%
MER By 1-7 points
0.0%
MER By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
App State
100
APP STATE
Mercer
56
MERCER
Simulated Score
App State
67
APP STATE
Mercer
73
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
APP @ MER
67 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+60.3% more
Mercer: 8.0
vs
App State: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+35.9% more
Mercer: 14.8
vs
App State: 10.9
Turnovers (L5)
+35.1% more
Mercer: 13.0
vs
App State: 9.6
Rebounding (L5)
+21.6% more
Mercer: 37.8
vs
App State: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APP Score
100.0
67
MER Score
56.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 31.1
39.0 / 19.0
Assists
14.8 / 10.9
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.5
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 41.8
41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 59.8
84.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 31.1
39.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.0 / 5.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 9.6
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
MER
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
APP
MER
APP
ML
55%
17-14
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
59%
19-13
ATS
58%
18-13
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
59%
19-13
TTL
61%
19-12
69%
22-10
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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