VIRGINIA ST
TROJANSVIRST
0-0 | Road
62
DELAWARE STATE
HORNETSDSU
2-6 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
50%
HORNETS
50%
TROJANS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
DELAWARE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Delaware State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DSU -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DSU)
VIRST By 1-7 points
0.0%
VIRST By 8-14 points
0.0%
DSU By 1-7 points
0.1%
DSU By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia St
36
VIRGINIA ST
Delaware State
76
DELAWARE STATE
Simulated Score
Virginia St
65
VIRGINIA ST
Delaware State
82
DELAWARE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
112
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
o161.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
VIRST @ DSU
62 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.0% more
Delaware State: 1.3
vs
Virginia St: 1.0
Assists (L5)
+21.2% more
Delaware State: 12.1
vs
Virginia St: 10.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Delaware State: 36.5%
vs
Virginia St: 31.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Delaware State: 61.1%
vs
Virginia St: 57.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VIRST Score
36.0
62
DSU Score
76.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 36.0
15.0 / 53.0
Assists
12.1 / 10.0
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
36.5 / 31.0
37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
61.1 / 57.0
80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 40.0
41.0 / 33.0
Steals
9.0 / 9.0
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 14.0
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VIRST
--
DSU
Advantage
8-23-0
(25.8%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VIRST
--
DSU
Advantage
9-17-0
(34.6%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
VIRST
--
DSU
7-19-0
O: 26.9% / U: 73.1%
Total +/-: -5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DSU
VIRST
DSU
VIRST
ML
60%
18-12
--
0-0
75%
18-6
--
0-0
ATS
60%
18-12
--
0-0
72%
18-7
0%
0-1
TTL
57%
17-13
--
0-0
100%
25-0
100%
1-0
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