SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
8-1 | Road
71
VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
8-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
COMMODORES
0%
GAELS
--
COMMODORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
SMC By 1-7 points
16.9%
SMC By 8-14 points
6.8%
VAN By 1-7 points
26.8%
VAN By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
58
SAINT MARY'S
Vanderbilt
64
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
63
SAINT MARY'S
Vanderbilt
72
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Commodores
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commodores
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Commodores (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Commodores (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
SMC @ VAN
71 - 96
Mar 21, 2025
VAN @ SMC
56 - 59
Nov 23, 2022
SMC @ VAN
75 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+84.6% more
Vanderbilt: 10.7
vs
Saint Mary's: 5.8
Assists (L5)
+42.0% more
Vanderbilt: 19.4
vs
Saint Mary's: 13.6
Turnovers (L5)
+10.7% more
Vanderbilt: 13.1
vs
Saint Mary's: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Vanderbilt: 40.8%
vs
Saint Mary's: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
58.0
71
VAN Score
64.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 34.2
42.0 / 33.0
Assists
19.4 / 13.6
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.7
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 47.6
52.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 78.7
82.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 41.5
34.0 / 30.0
Steals
10.7 / 5.8
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.8
7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
VAN
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
SMC
VAN
SMC
ML
69%
25-11
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
82%
23-5
ATS
78%
28-8
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
83%
24-5
TTL
58%
21-15
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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