MIDWESTERN STATE
MUSTANGSMID
0-0 | Road
57
TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
5-3 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
TEXANS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
TEXANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Tarleton State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)
MID By 1-7 points
1.1%
MID By 8-14 points
0.1%
TAR By 1-7 points
5.8%
TAR By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Midwestern State
63
MIDWESTERN STATE
Tarleton State
85
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
Midwestern State
70
MIDWESTERN STATE
Tarleton State
75
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Texans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Texans (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Texans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
MID @ TAR
57 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+187.3% more
Tarleton State: 8.6
vs
Midwestern State: 3.0
Blocks (L5)
+45.3% more
Tarleton State: 4.4
vs
Midwestern State: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Tarleton State: 49.9%
vs
Midwestern State: 43.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Midwestern State: 20.0
vs
Tarleton State: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MID Score
63.0
57
TAR Score
85.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.3 / 28.0
20.0 / 23.0
Assists
12.5 / 14.0
12.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 43.0
39.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 82.0
82.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 37.0
33.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.6 / 3.0
16.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 20.0
17.0 / 30.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MID
--
TAR
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MID
--
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MID
--
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
MID
TAR
MID
ML
59%
19-13
100%
1-0
66%
21-11
100%
1-0
ATS
69%
22-10
100%
1-0
66%
21-11
100%
1-0
TTL
50%
16-16
0%
0-1
100%
32-0
100%
1-0
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