EMERSON
LIONSEMER
0-0 | Road
67
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
3-6 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
RIVER HAWKS
0%
LIONS
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-74.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +74.0 points (UMass Lowell)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UML -74.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)
EMER By 1-7 points
0.0%
EMER By 8-14 points
0.0%
UML By 1-7 points
0.0%
UML By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Emerson
41
EMERSON
UMass Lowell
115
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
Emerson
52
EMERSON
UMass Lowell
85
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
River Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
River Hawks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -74.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
EMER @ UML
67 - 90
Dec 30, 2024
EMER @ UML
39 - 101
Dec 31, 2023
EMER @ UML
48 - 116
Nov 19, 2022
EMER @ UML
53 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+70.3% more
UMass Lowell: 2.8
vs
Emerson: 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+40.9% more
UMass Lowell: 38.7
vs
Emerson: 27.5
Assists (L5)
+32.6% more
UMass Lowell: 13.8
vs
Emerson: 10.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+23.0%
UMass Lowell: 62.0%
vs
Emerson: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EMER Score
41.0
67
UML Score
115.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 21.4
21.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.8 / 10.4
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.7
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 31.6
57.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
62.0 / 39.0
74.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 27.5
45.0 / 24.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.3
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 18.4
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMER
--
UML
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMER
--
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
EMER
--
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
EMER
UML
EMER
ML
70%
23-10
100%
1-0
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
ATS
70%
23-10
100%
1-0
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
TTL
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
100%
33-0
100%
1-0
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