Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Mustangs RED @ CP

REDLANDS

BULLDOGSRED

0-0  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Mott Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

4-5  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
MUSTANGS
100%
BULLDOGS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
REDLANDS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Redlands)
BulldogsRED (-3.5) 0 MustangsCP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

93.3%

Mustangs Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RED -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RED)

RED By 1-7 points

15.3%

RED By 8-14 points

25.3%

CP By 1-7 points

4.8%

CP By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
83
REDLANDS
68
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
55
REDLANDS
88
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 RED @ CP 81 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +60.5% more
Cal Poly: 2.7 vs Redlands: 1.7
Rebounding (L5) +46.5% more
Cal Poly: 40.0 vs Redlands: 27.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Cal Poly: 33.9% vs Redlands: 25.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Cal Poly: 40.4% vs Redlands: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RED Score 83.0 81
CP Score 68.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 25.7 43.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.1 / 10.3 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.7 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 32.3 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 69.3 92.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 27.3 40.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.0 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 16.7 21.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RED
--
CP Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RED
--
CP Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RED
--
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
RED
CP
RED
ML
58% 19-14
0% 0-1
58% 19-14
100% 1-0
ATS
64% 21-12
0% 0-1
58% 19-14
100% 1-0
TTL
61% 20-13
100% 1-0
100% 33-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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