Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Bulldogs APP @ UNCA

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

4-5  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 1:30 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

3-4  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

21.2%

Bulldogs Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCA +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

APP By 1-7 points

25.3%

APP By 8-14 points

26.2%

UNCA By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNCA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
APP STATE
70
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
70
APP STATE
73
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 APP @ UNCA 55 - 67
Dec 21, 2023 UNCA @ APP 76 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
App State: 3.6 vs UNC Asheville: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +74.0% more
UNC Asheville: 15.8 vs App State: 9.1
Steals (L5) +41.9% more
UNC Asheville: 7.6 vs App State: 5.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +17.2%
UNC Asheville: 44.3% vs App State: 27.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 78.0 55
UNCA Score 70.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.3 / 27.1 17.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.1 / 12.0 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 43.2 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 57.9 81.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 32.4 36.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.6 / 5.3 5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 9.1 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UNCA
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
UNCA
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
APP
UNCA
APP
ML
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
ATS
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
TTL
60% 18-12
69% 22-10
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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