Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / RiverHawks @ Bears NEO @ MOST

NORTHEASTERN STATE

RIVERHAWKSNEO

0-0  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

4-3  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
RIVERHAWKS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
RIVERHAWKS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Missouri State)
RiverHawksNEO (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

RiverHawks Cover

0.0%

Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

NEO By 1-7 points

0.0%

NEO By 8-14 points

0.0%

MOST By 1-7 points

0.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
54
NORTHEASTERN STATE
92
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
61
NORTHEASTERN STATE
82
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 NEO @ MOST 71 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +98.0% more
Missouri State: 7.9 vs Northeastern State: 4.0
Blocks (L5) +58.5% more
Missouri State: 3.2 vs Northeastern State: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +14.2%
Missouri State: 64.2% vs Northeastern State: 50.0%
Turnovers (L5) +33.4% more
Northeastern State: 16.0 vs Missouri State: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEO Score 54.0 71
MOST Score 92.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.1 / 38.0 46.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.3 / 15.0 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.0 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 47.0 52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 64.2 / 50.0 81.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 35.0 40.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.9 / 4.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 16.0 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEO
--
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEO
--
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NEO
--
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
NEO
MOST
NEO
ML
65% 22-12
100% 1-0
62% 21-13
100% 1-0
ATS
68% 23-11
100% 1-0
62% 21-13
100% 1-0
TTL
44% 15-19
100% 1-0
100% 34-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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