Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Bees @ Leathernecks STA @ WIU

ST. AMBROSE

FIGHTING BEESSTA

0-0  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 4:00 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

2-6  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING BEES
100%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
0%
FIGHTING BEES --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-57.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +57.0 points (Western Illinois)
Fighting BeesSTA (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Bees Cover

0.0%

Leathernecks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -57.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

STA By 1-7 points

0.0%

STA By 8-14 points

0.0%

WIU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WIU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
43
ST. AMBROSE
100
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
57
ST. AMBROSE
88
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -57.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 STA @ WIU 73 - 89
Dec 4, 2024 STA @ WIU 64 - 97
Nov 12, 2023 STA @ WIU 59 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.3% more
Western Illinois: 2.0 vs St. Ambrose: 1.4
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
Western Illinois: 32.8 vs St. Ambrose: 28.3
Field Goal % (L5) +13.8%
Western Illinois: 43.0% vs St. Ambrose: 29.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
Western Illinois: 35.8% vs St. Ambrose: 27.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STA Score 43.0 73
WIU Score 100.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 27.0 41.0 / 43.0
Assists 7.6 / 8.9 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.0 / 1.4 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 29.1 48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 63.5 / 76.6 50.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 28.3 44.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.5 / 5.6 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 16.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STA
--
WIU Advantage
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STA
--
WIU Advantage
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STA
--
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
STA
WIU
STA
ML
45% 14-17
100% 1-0
61% 19-12
100% 1-0
ATS
52% 16-15
100% 1-0
61% 19-12
100% 1-0
TTL
45% 14-17
100% 1-0
100% 31-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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