SAINT MARY OF THE WOODS COLLEGE
POMEROYSSMWC
0-0 | Road
57
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
3-6 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
POMEROYS
100%
REDHAWKS
0%
POMEROYS
--
REDHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEMO -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
SMWC By 1-7 points
2.2%
SMWC By 8-14 points
0.4%
SEMO By 1-7 points
9.3%
SEMO By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary of the Woods College
81
SAINT MARY OF THE WOODS COLLEGE
Southeast Missouri State
100
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
Saint Mary of the Woods College
56
SAINT MARY OF THE WOODS COLLEGE
Southeast Missouri State
92
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Redhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 2, 2025
SMWC @ SEMO
57 - 88
Dec 15, 2024
SMWC @ SEMO
56 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+103.4% more
Southeast Missouri State: 11.5
vs
Saint Mary of the Woods College: 5.6
Blocks (L5)
+48.9% more
Southeast Missouri State: 2.7
vs
Saint Mary of the Woods College: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+16.6% more
Southeast Missouri State: 34.9
vs
Saint Mary of the Woods College: 30.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.0%
Southeast Missouri State: 69.4%
vs
Saint Mary of the Woods College: 53.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMWC Score
81.0
57
SEMO Score
100.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.2 / 20.7
14.0 / 13.0
Assists
11.5 / 5.6
17.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.7 / 1.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 28.9
51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
69.4 / 53.4
83.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 30.0
38.0 / 27.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.7
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 19.6
11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMWC
--
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMWC
--
SEMO
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SMWC
--
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
SMWC
SEMO
SMWC
ML
64%
21-12
100%
1-0
50%
15-15
100%
1-0
ATS
67%
22-11
100%
1-0
50%
15-15
100%
1-0
TTL
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
100%
30-0
100%
1-0
Contextual Game News
