VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
DRAGONSUVAL
0-0 | Road
45
APP STATE
MOUNTAINEERSAPP
5-5 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
DRAGONS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (App State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)
UVAL By 1-7 points
0.0%
UVAL By 8-14 points
0.0%
APP By 1-7 points
0.0%
APP By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
46
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
App State
87
APP STATE
Simulated Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
47
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
App State
98
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
UVAL @ APP
45 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+198.0% more
App State: 2.8
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 0.8
Rebounding (L5)
+22.7% more
App State: 29.9
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 24.4
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
App State: 11.3
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 10.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.5%
App State: 42.1%
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVAL Score
46.0
45
APP Score
87.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.0 / 28.3
32.0 / 13.0
Assists
11.3 / 10.4
31.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.8 / 0.8
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 33.6
58.0 / 24.0
Free Throw %
54.3 / 76.6
58.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 24.4
82.0 / 15.0
Steals
3.9 / 5.3
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 16.2
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVAL
--
APP
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVAL
--
APP
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UVAL
--
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
UVAL
APP
UVAL
ML
62%
20-12
78%
7-2
59%
19-13
100%
9-0
ATS
59%
19-13
78%
7-2
59%
19-13
100%
9-0
TTL
69%
22-10
44%
4-5
100%
32-0
100%
9-0
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