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PENN STATE-SHENANGO

NITTANY LIONSPEN

0-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 7:00 PM ET
DeGol Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

2-7  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
RED FLASH
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
RED FLASH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
SAINT FRANCIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Saint Francis)
Nittany LionsPEN (-3.5) 0 Red FlashSFPA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

0.0%

Red Flash Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFPA -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFPA)

PEN By 1-7 points

0.0%

PEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

SFPA By 1-7 points

0.0%

SFPA By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
46
PENN STATE-SHENANGO
98
SAINT FRANCIS
Simulated Score
55
PENN STATE-SHENANGO
90
SAINT FRANCIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Flash Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Flash Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Flash (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
D
Sim Red Flash (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 PEN @ SFPA 41 - 100
Dec 4, 2024 PEN @ SFPA 55 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.3% more
Saint Francis: 6.9 vs Penn State-Shenango: 4.0
Assists (L5) +62.8% more
Saint Francis: 15.7 vs Penn State-Shenango: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +49.4% more
Saint Francis: 3.5 vs Penn State-Shenango: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Saint Francis: 17.1 vs Penn State-Shenango: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEN Score 46.0 41
SFPA Score 98.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 23.7 34.0 / 13.0
Assists 15.7 / 9.7 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.3 7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 30.4 48.0 / 23.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 89.5 60.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 31.9 64.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.9 / 4.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 13.8 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEN
--
SFPA Advantage
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEN
--
SFPA Advantage
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PEN
--
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFPA
PEN
SFPA
PEN
ML
68% 21-10
100% 3-0
67% 20-10
100% 3-0
ATS
68% 21-10
100% 3-0
67% 20-10
100% 3-0
TTL
58% 18-13
100% 3-0
100% 30-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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