Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Yellow Jackets @ Texans HWPU @ TAR

HOWARD PAYNE

YELLOW JACKETSHWPU

0-0  |  Road

54
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

6-4  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
YELLOW JACKETS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
YELLOW JACKETS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Tarleton State)
Yellow JacketsHWPU (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yellow Jackets Cover

0.0%

Texans Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

HWPU By 1-7 points

0.0%

HWPU By 8-14 points

0.0%

TAR By 1-7 points

0.0%

TAR By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
65
HOWARD PAYNE
106
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
52
HOWARD PAYNE
95
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 HWPU @ TAR 54 - 119
Dec 21, 2024 HWPU @ TAR 83 - 100
Jan 25, 2021 HWPU @ TAR 53 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +29.3% more
Tarleton State: 31.7 vs Howard Payne: 24.5
Blocks (L5) +12.5% more
Tarleton State: 3.2 vs Howard Payne: 2.8
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Tarleton State: 44.5% vs Howard Payne: 35.4%
Assists (L5) +8.4% more
Tarleton State: 11.5 vs Howard Payne: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HWPU Score 65.0 54
TAR Score 106.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 25.9 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.5 / 10.6 28.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 35.4 55.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 66.3 75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 24.5 53.0 / 26.0
Steals 10.4 / 12.0 22.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 20.8 12.0 / 29.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HWPU
--
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HWPU
--
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HWPU
--
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
HWPU
TAR
HWPU
ML
59% 19-13
100% 2-0
66% 21-11
100% 2-0
ATS
69% 22-10
100% 2-0
66% 21-11
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 16-16
100% 2-0
100% 32-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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