IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
5-4 | Road
68
KANSAS CITY
ROOSKC
1-7 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
ROOS
100%
BENGALS
--
ROOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
IDST By 1-7 points
10.7%
IDST By 8-14 points
21.6%
KC By 1-7 points
2.7%
KC By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho State
93
IDAHO STATE
Kansas City
75
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Idaho State
67
IDAHO STATE
Kansas City
72
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bengals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bengals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Roos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
IDST @ KC
68 - 59
Nov 29, 2022
IDST @ KC
75 - 65
Nov 22, 2021
KC @ IDST
74 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.4% more
Idaho State: 5.6
vs
Kansas City: 1.9
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
Idaho State: 36.2
vs
Kansas City: 30.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.7%
Idaho State: 76.9%
vs
Kansas City: 64.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Idaho State: 46.6%
vs
Kansas City: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDST Score
93.0
68
KC Score
75.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.7 / 30.9
23.0 / 25.0
Assists
12.3 / 13.0
10.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 5.6
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 46.6
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
64.2 / 76.9
75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 36.2
27.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.6
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 13.1
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
Advantage
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
KC
4-27-0
(12.9%)
Margin: -14.5
ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
KC
5-23-0
(17.9%)
Margin: -14.5
ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
KC
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
IDST
KC
IDST
ML
63%
19-11
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
ATS
67%
20-10
50%
16-16
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
TTL
70%
21-9
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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