HANNIBAL-LAGRANGE
TROJANSHLGU
0-0 | Road
47
WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
3-7 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
0%
TROJANS
--
LEATHERNECKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Western Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)
HLGU By 1-7 points
2.7%
HLGU By 8-14 points
0.5%
WIU By 1-7 points
10.7%
WIU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Hannibal-Lagrange
69
HANNIBAL-LAGRANGE
Western Illinois
87
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Hannibal-Lagrange
48
HANNIBAL-LAGRANGE
Western Illinois
92
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leathernecks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Leathernecks (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Leathernecks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 6, 2025
HLGU @ WIU
47 - 78
Nov 30, 2023
HLGU @ WIU
40 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.7% more
Western Illinois: 5.8
vs
Hannibal-Lagrange: 4.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.4% more
Western Illinois: 31.4
vs
Hannibal-Lagrange: 28.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Western Illinois: 60.0%
vs
Hannibal-Lagrange: 55.0%
Blocks (L5)
+68.4% more
Hannibal-Lagrange: 3.9
vs
Western Illinois: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HLGU Score
69.0
47
WIU Score
87.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 40.4
22.0 / 23.0
Assists
8.2 / 14.1
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.2 / 3.9
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 41.9
47.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
60.0 / 55.0
82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 28.4
48.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 18.6
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HLGU
--
WIU
Advantage
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HLGU
--
WIU
Advantage
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HLGU
--
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
HLGU
WIU
HLGU
ML
45%
14-17
100%
1-0
61%
19-12
100%
1-0
ATS
52%
16-15
100%
1-0
61%
19-12
100%
1-0
TTL
45%
14-17
0%
0-1
100%
31-0
100%
1-0
