OGLETHORPE
STORMY PETRELSOGLET
0-0 | Road
50
MERCER
BEARSMER
7-2 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
STORMY PETRELS
0%
BEARS
100%
STORMY PETRELS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OGLETHORPE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Oglethorpe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OGLET -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OGLET)
OGLET By 1-7 points
1.7%
OGLET By 8-14 points
6.8%
MER By 1-7 points
0.2%
MER By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Oglethorpe
79
OGLETHORPE
Mercer
51
MERCER
Simulated Score
Oglethorpe
58
OGLETHORPE
Mercer
85
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stormy Petrels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stormy Petrels (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 7, 2025
OGLET @ MER
50 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+35.7% more
Oglethorpe: 16.9
vs
Mercer: 10.9
Blocks (L5)
+166.0% more
Mercer: 2.5
vs
Oglethorpe: 0.9
Rebounding (L5)
+60.6% more
Mercer: 37.9
vs
Oglethorpe: 23.6
Steals (L5)
+55.9% more
Mercer: 9.2
vs
Oglethorpe: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OGLET Score
79.0
50
MER Score
51.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 24.5
30.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.2 / 10.7
23.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 34.0
49.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 60.3
40.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 23.6
54.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.2 / 5.9
15.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 16.9
8.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OGLET
--
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OGLET
--
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OGLET
--
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
OGLET
MER
OGLET
ML
55%
17-14
0%
0-1
71%
22-9
100%
1-0
ATS
58%
18-13
0%
0-1
71%
22-9
100%
1-0
TTL
61%
19-12
100%
1-0
100%
31-0
100%
1-0
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