Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Falcons AQUI @ BGSU

AQUINAS

SAINTSAQUI

0-0  |  Road

50
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

7-3  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
SAINTS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+28.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SaintsAQUI (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

0.3%

Falcons Cover

99.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU +28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

AQUI By 1-7 points

1.7%

AQUI By 8-14 points

6.8%

BGSU By 1-7 points

0.2%

BGSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
AQUINAS
58
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
58
AQUINAS
85
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+43.5) Win
Proj Spread: +28.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 AQUI @ BGSU 50 - 131
Dec 23, 2024 AQUI @ BGSU 62 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Aquinas: 14.3 vs Bowling Green: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Aquinas: 74.8% vs Bowling Green: 70.8%
Steals (L5) +45.2% more
Bowling Green: 9.6 vs Aquinas: 6.6
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Bowling Green: 35.6 vs Aquinas: 30.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AQUI Score 86.0 50
BGSU Score 58.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 27.7 45.0 / 48.0
Assists 13.8 / 12.8 26.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.1 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 38.4 69.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 74.8 84.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 30.1 41.0 / 22.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.6 25.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.3 7.0 / 30.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AQUI
--
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AQUI
--
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AQUI
--
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
AQUI
BGSU
AQUI
ML
66% 21-11
0% 0-1
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
ATS
72% 23-9
100% 1-0
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
TTL
53% 17-15
0% 0-1
100% 32-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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