Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Lions CARK @ ETAM

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

4-6  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 6:00 PM ET
The Field House
View Odds Details →

EAST TEXAS A&M

LIONSETAM

5-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
BEARS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Central Arkansas)
BearsCARK (-3.5) 0 LionsETAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

78.8%

Lions Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

CARK By 1-7 points

25.3%

CARK By 8-14 points

26.2%

ETAM By 1-7 points

13.7%

ETAM By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
75
EAST TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
72
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
78
EAST TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 CARK @ ETAM 68 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
Central Arkansas: 9.8 vs East Texas A&M: 6.9
Rebounding (L5) +14.7% more
Central Arkansas: 37.7 vs East Texas A&M: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +117.6% more
East Texas A&M: 3.6 vs Central Arkansas: 1.7
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
East Texas A&M: 70.6% vs Central Arkansas: 68.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 83.0 68
ETAM Score 75.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 35.7 31.0 / 24.0
Assists 16.3 / 17.1 15.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.7 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 44.3 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 68.6 76.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 37.7 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.8 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.2 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
ETAM
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
ETAM
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETAM
CARK
ETAM
CARK
ML
52% 13-12
67% 22-11
62% 15-9
70% 23-10
ATS
56% 14-11
61% 20-13
62% 15-9
70% 23-10
TTL
68% 17-8
50% 16-16-1
100% 24-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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