ARKANSAS BAPTIST
BUFFALOESARBA
0-0 | Road
69
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
3-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
0%
WARHAWKS
100%
BUFFALOES
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ULM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
ARBA By 1-7 points
26.2%
ARBA By 8-14 points
16.9%
ULM By 1-7 points
24.3%
ULM By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas Baptist
80
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
UL Monroe
79
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Arkansas Baptist
58
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
UL Monroe
92
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Buffaloes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
ARBA @ ULM
69 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.0% more
Arkansas Baptist: 17.9
vs
UL Monroe: 11.3
Steals (L5)
+31.9% more
Arkansas Baptist: 8.4
vs
UL Monroe: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+32.2% more
UL Monroe: 12.0
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 9.1
Rebounding (L5)
+29.5% more
UL Monroe: 34.7
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 26.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARBA Score
80.0
69
ULM Score
79.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.2 / 28.6
20.0 / 6.0
Assists
12.0 / 9.1
13.0 / 4.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.3
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
40.1 / 37.1
38.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 74.1
76.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 26.8
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.4
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 17.9
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARBA
--
ULM
Advantage
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARBA
--
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARBA
--
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
ARBA
ULM
ARBA
ML
50%
16-16
67%
2-1
70%
21-9
100%
3-0
ATS
78%
25-7
100%
3-0
70%
21-9
100%
3-0
TTL
59%
19-13
67%
2-1
100%
30-0
100%
3-0
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