Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Lancers SOU @ CBU

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

4-7  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 10:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

9-3  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
JAGUARS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California Baptist)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

46.0%

Lancers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

SOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

CBU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CBU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
81
SOUTHERN
82
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN
74
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 SOU @ CBU 67 - 75
Dec 18, 2019 SOU @ CBU 61 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
California Baptist: 38.7 vs Southern: 34.3
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
California Baptist: 73.6% vs Southern: 67.3%
Steals (L5) +59.5% more
Southern: 11.5 vs California Baptist: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +26.0% more
Southern: 3.7 vs California Baptist: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 81.0 67
CBU Score 82.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 37.7 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.3 / 14.0 14.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 47.6 37.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 67.3 81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 34.3 40.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.7 / 11.5 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 15.3 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
SOU
CBU
SOU
ML
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
76% 25-8
70% 21-9
ATS
53% 18-16
64% 21-12
76% 25-8
70% 21-9
TTL
47% 16-18
42% 14-19
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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