UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
3-6 | Road
83
LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
5-4 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
VAQUEROS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-71.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +71.0 points (Lamar)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAM -71.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)
RGV By 1-7 points
0.0%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.0%
LAM By 1-7 points
0.0%
LAM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
36
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Lamar
107
LAMAR
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Lamar
78
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -71.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 16, 2026
LAM @ RGV
65 - 70
Dec 16, 2025
RGV @ LAM
83 - 72
Feb 8, 2025
RGV @ LAM
68 - 70
Dec 7, 2024
LAM @ RGV
84 - 52
Mar 2, 2022
RGV @ LAM
67 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+109.3% more
Lamar: 5.9
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.8
Steals (L5)
+24.9% more
Lamar: 8.4
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
Lamar: 14.4
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 12.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
Lamar: 13.4
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
36.0
83
LAM Score
107.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 30.6
32.0 / 56.0
Assists
14.4 / 12.9
16.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.9 / 2.8
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.3 / 41.1
41.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
66.1 / 73.5
71.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 34.7
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.7
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.2
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
RGV
LAM
RGV
ML
55%
16-13
53%
16-14
59%
17-12
54%
15-13
ATS
52%
15-14
53%
16-14
60%
18-12
54%
15-13
TTL
72%
21-8
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
28-0
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