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TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

8-4  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
R.W. Harrison HPER Complex
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

1-10  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
DELTA DEVILS
100%
TEXANS --
DELTA DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 Delta DevilsMVSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

99.4%

Delta Devils Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

3.3%

TAR By 8-14 points

10.7%

MVSU By 1-7 points

0.5%

MVSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
58
TARLETON STATE
33
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Simulated Score
59
TARLETON STATE
78
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Delta Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Delta Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 TAR @ MVSU 88 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.5% more
Tarleton State: 13.8 vs Mississippi Valley State: 7.3
Rebounding (L5) +21.5% more
Tarleton State: 40.2 vs Mississippi Valley State: 31.5
Field Goal % (L5) +14.2%
Tarleton State: 50.7% vs Mississippi Valley State: 36.5%
Assists (L5) +12.5% more
Tarleton State: 15.4 vs Mississippi Valley State: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 58.0 88
MVSU Score 33.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.6 / 33.6 31.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.4 / 15.4 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.7 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 36.5 / 50.7 54.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 65.5 67.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 40.2 25.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.3 / 13.8 10.0 / 19.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 14.9 26.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MVSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MVSU
TAR
MVSU
TAR
ML
91% 30-3
59% 19-13
75% 18-6
66% 21-11
ATS
82% 27-6
69% 22-10
75% 18-6
66% 21-11
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
100% 24-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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