Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sharks @ Bulldogs LIU @ MSST

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

SHARKSLIU

6-4  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:30 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

5-5  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
SHARKS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Mississippi State)
SharksLIU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

1.4%

Bulldogs Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

LIU By 1-7 points

1.1%

LIU By 8-14 points

0.1%

MSST By 1-7 points

5.8%

MSST By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
98
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
58
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 LIU @ MSST 83 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Mississippi State: 38.2 vs Long Island University: 33.1
Turnovers (L5) +39.4% more
Long Island University: 14.8 vs Mississippi State: 8.9
Steals (L5) +36.3% more
Long Island University: 11.4 vs Mississippi State: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +33.1% more
Long Island University: 5.8 vs Mississippi State: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIU Score 76.0 83
MSST Score 98.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 40.3 40.0 / 37.0
Assists 12.2 / 13.3 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 5.8 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 49.2 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 59.1 / 68.1 77.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 33.1 40.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 11.4 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 14.8 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIU
--
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIU
--
MSST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LIU
--
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
LIU
MSST
LIU
ML
66% 21-11
60% 21-14
55% 17-14
69% 24-11
ATS
56% 18-14
63% 22-13
55% 17-14
69% 24-11
TTL
59% 19-13
60% 21-14
100% 31-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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