Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Southern Miss WKU @ USM

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

8-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Tue, Dec 23 • 5:30 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

7-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Zach Smith
KEY GAME

Zach Smith

#20 | Linebacker
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Zach Smith None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
0%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
WESTERN KY --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

58.5%

Southern Miss Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WKU By 7-13 points

17.5%

USM By 1-6 points

15.3%

USM By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
34
WESTERN KENTUCKY
31
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
27
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Southern Miss Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Southern Miss (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 65.0
B
Sim u58.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2025 WKU @ USM 27 - 16
Nov 14, 2020 USM @ WKU 7 - 10
Nov 23, 2019 WKU @ USM 28 - 10
Dec 5, 2015 USM @ WKU 28 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Western Kentucky: 148.8 vs Southern Miss: 109.3
Turnovers (L5) +21.7% more
Western Kentucky: 1.8 vs Southern Miss: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 34.0 27
USM Score 31.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.7 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 109.3 / 148.8 119.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 390.1 / 371.1 377.0 / 422.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
WKU
USM
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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