Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Spartans TOL @ MSU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

5-5  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 6:30 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

9-1  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
ROCKETS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Michigan State)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

38.2%

Spartans Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

TOL By 1-7 points

21.6%

TOL By 8-14 points

10.7%

MSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

MSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
61
TOLEDO
64
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
65
TOLEDO
78
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 TOL @ MSU 69 - 92
Dec 4, 2021 TOL @ MSU 68 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Michigan State: 12.1 vs Toledo: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +19.9% more
Michigan State: 4.1 vs Toledo: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
Michigan State: 42.5% vs Toledo: 29.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Toledo: 81.3% vs Michigan State: 79.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 61.0 69
MSU Score 64.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.5 / 29.9 43.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.2 / 15.1 26.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.4 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 44.5 51.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 81.3 74.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 38.7 54.0 / 24.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.3 3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.9 15.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
TOL
MSU
TOL
ML
71% 25-10
48% 16-17
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
ATS
71% 25-10
48% 16-17
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
TTL
49% 17-18
64% 21-12
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
yahoo 5 days, 20 hours ago
Kyrie Irving Declares Himself Ready, Cooper Flagg Reveals Growth…
yardbarker 1 week, 6 days ago
Kentucky vs. Kansas Tip-Off Time Announced for 2026-27 Champions…
yahoo 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Chris Spatola, Duke Basketball Analyst and Mike Krzyzewski's Son…
cbsnews 2 weeks, 1 day ago