Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Wildcats VAL @ NU

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

6-5  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Welsh-Ryan Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

7-4  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BEACONS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northwestern)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 WildcatsNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

38.2%

Wildcats Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

VAL By 1-7 points

21.6%

VAL By 8-14 points

10.7%

NU By 1-7 points

27.2%

NU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
72
VALPARAISO
75
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
63
VALPARAISO
78
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 VAL @ NU 70 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.4% more
Northwestern: 19.3 vs Valparaiso: 14.5
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Northwestern: 4.0 vs Valparaiso: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5) +10.0%
Northwestern: 79.8% vs Valparaiso: 69.8%
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Northwestern: 11.0 vs Valparaiso: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 72.0 70
NU Score 75.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 31.3 24.0 / 32.0
Assists 19.3 / 14.5 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 43.5 54.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 69.8 68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 40.1 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.6 / 5.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.1 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
VAL
NU
VAL
ML
47% 16-18
48% 16-17
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
ATS
50% 17-17
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 18-16
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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