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ORAL ROBERTS

GOLDEN EAGLESORU

5-7  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

4-5  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Missouri State)
Golden EaglesORU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

9.7%

Bears Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

ORU By 1-7 points

6.8%

ORU By 8-14 points

1.7%

MOST By 1-7 points

18.6%

MOST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
46
ORAL ROBERTS
59
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
ORAL ROBERTS
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 ORU @ MOST 62 - 63
Dec 1, 2024 MOST @ ORU 72 - 67
Nov 13, 2023 ORU @ MOST 69 - 84
Dec 16, 2022 MOST @ ORU 77 - 80
Dec 11, 2021 ORU @ MOST 60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.3% more
Missouri State: 3.1 vs Oral Roberts: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Oral Roberts: 15.8 vs Missouri State: 12.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.7% more
Oral Roberts: 36.7 vs Missouri State: 33.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Oral Roberts: 76.5% vs Missouri State: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORU Score 46.0 62
MOST Score 59.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 34.6 25.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.5 / 12.9 10.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.8 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.6 42.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 76.5 71.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 36.7 30.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.7 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 15.8 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORU
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORU
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ORU
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
ORU
MOST
ORU
ML
65% 22-12
85% 28-5
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
ATS
68% 23-11
82% 27-6
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
TTL
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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