UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
10-1 | Road
67
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
LIONSLMU
7-4 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
LIONS
100%
TRITONS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
10.7%
UCSD By 8-14 points
21.6%
LMU By 1-7 points
2.7%
LMU By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
88
UC SAN DIEGO
Loyola Marymount
70
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Loyola Marymount
78
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
UCSD @ LMU
67 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.5% more
UC San Diego: 16.8
vs
Loyola Marymount: 12.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
UC San Diego: 38.8
vs
Loyola Marymount: 34.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
UC San Diego: 39.7%
vs
Loyola Marymount: 29.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
UC San Diego: 49.3%
vs
Loyola Marymount: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
88.0
67
LMU Score
70.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.1 / 39.7
30.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.2 / 16.8
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.0 / 1.9
8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 49.3
39.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 68.4
40.0 / 47.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 38.8
30.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.5
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 9.6
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
LMU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
LMU
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
UCSD
LMU
UCSD
ML
53%
17-15
56%
19-15
50%
16-16
65%
22-12
ATS
47%
15-17
50%
17-17
50%
16-16
65%
22-12
TTL
62%
20-12
62%
21-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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