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SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

7-6  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 6:00 PM ET
Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

0-12  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
SPARTANS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (South Carolina State)
SpartansUPST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSCST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

24.2%

Bulldogs Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SCST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)

UPST By 1-7 points

15.3%

UPST By 8-14 points

5.8%

SCST By 1-7 points

26.2%

SCST By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
71
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
72
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 UPST @ SCST 78 - 72
Dec 18, 2024 SCST @ UPST 85 - 70
Dec 10, 2022 SCST @ UPST 84 - 89
Nov 23, 2021 UPST @ SCST 82 - 78
Dec 18, 2019 UPST @ SCST 73 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.2% more
South Carolina State: 14.1 vs South Carolina Upstate: 10.4
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
South Carolina State: 5.3 vs South Carolina Upstate: 4.3
Blocks (L5) +53.7% more
South Carolina Upstate: 4.4 vs South Carolina State: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
South Carolina Upstate: 67.3% vs South Carolina State: 61.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UPST Score 64.0 78
SCST Score 71.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 34.4 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.0 / 12.6 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.2 / 41.6 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 61.4 / 67.3 69.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 38.1 23.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.3 / 4.3 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 10.4 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
SCST
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCST
UPST
SCST
UPST
ML
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
74% 20-7
83% 25-5
ATS
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
74% 20-7
83% 25-5
TTL
52% 16-15
52% 16-15
100% 27-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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