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NORTH CAROLINA A&T

AGGIESNCAT

6-4  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

3-9  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
AGGIES --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
AggiesNCAT (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

46.0%

Spartans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

NCAT By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCAT By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNCG By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNCG By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
67
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
73
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
67
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aggies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 NCAT @ UNCG 71 - 65
Dec 7, 2024 UNCG @ NCAT 67 - 55
Nov 10, 2023 NCAT @ UNCG 78 - 94
Nov 30, 2022 UNCG @ NCAT 56 - 73
Nov 9, 2021 NCAT @ UNCG 53 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.9% more
UNC Greensboro: 14.5 vs North Carolina A&T: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
UNC Greensboro: 36.3% vs North Carolina A&T: 29.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
UNC Greensboro: 48.4% vs North Carolina A&T: 43.6%
Blocks (L5) +57.0% more
North Carolina A&T: 4.6 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score 66.0 71
UNCG Score 67.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 29.3 32.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.5 / 10.6 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.0 / 4.6 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 43.6 37.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 73.9 53.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 38.6 37.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.0 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 14.6 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
NCAT
UNCG
NCAT
ML
38% 13-21
52% 14-13
71% 24-10
63% 17-10
ATS
44% 15-19
63% 17-10
71% 24-10
64% 18-10
TTL
76% 26-8
69% 18-8-1
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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