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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

5-5  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

8-3  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
SEMINOLES --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dayton)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

46.0%

Flyers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

FSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

DAY By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAY By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
77
FLORIDA STATE
78
DAYTON
Simulated Score
71
FLORIDA STATE
74
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 FSU @ DAY 69 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.5% more
Dayton: 10.6 vs Florida State: 8.1
Blocks (L5) +20.2% more
Dayton: 5.2 vs Florida State: 4.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Dayton: 47.5% vs Florida State: 40.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Dayton: 31.8% vs Florida State: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 77.0 69
DAY Score 78.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 28.8 30.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.7 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.4 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 40.6 49.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 62.1 / 70.1 85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 36.9 35.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.6 / 8.1 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.9 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
FSU
DAY
FSU
ML
65% 24-13
64% 21-12
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
ATS
68% 25-12
55% 18-15
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
TTL
57% 21-16
48% 16-17
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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