BUTLER
BULLDOGSBUT
8-2 | Road
60
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
10-1 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
HUSKIES
0%
BULLDOGS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
BUT By 1-7 points
0.0%
BUT By 8-14 points
0.0%
CONN By 1-7 points
0.1%
CONN By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Butler
70
BUTLER
UConn
107
UCONN
Simulated Score
Butler
68
BUTLER
UConn
75
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (+15)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
CONN @ BUT
80 - 70
Dec 16, 2025
BUT @ CONN
60 - 79
Jan 21, 2025
BUT @ CONN
78 - 80
Dec 21, 2024
CONN @ BUT
78 - 74
Feb 6, 2024
BUT @ CONN
62 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.8% more
UConn: 11.0
vs
Butler: 9.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
UConn: 50.2%
vs
Butler: 48.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+20.7% more
Butler: 41.4
vs
UConn: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUT Score
70.0
60
CONN Score
107.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 36.3
35.0 / 21.0
Assists
19.0 / 18.0
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.5
13.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 48.6
51.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 67.2
62.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 41.4
47.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.5
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 9.2
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
BUT
CONN
BUT
ML
76%
29-9
62%
20-12
66%
23-12
65%
20-11
ATS
74%
28-10
56%
18-14
66%
23-12
65%
20-11
TTL
50%
19-19
50%
16-16
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…