EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
15-12-6 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
14-8-9 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Tristan Jarry
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | None-None | 4.01 | 0.867 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.01
GAA
--
0.867
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
OILERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
EDM By 1 goal
12.1%
EDM By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
PIT @ EDM
6 - 2
Dec 16, 2025
EDM @ PIT
6 - 4
Jan 9, 2025
EDM @ PIT
3 - 5
Oct 25, 2024
PIT @ EDM
0 - 4
Mar 10, 2024
EDM @ PIT
4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+42.0% more
Pittsburgh: 5.4
vs
Edmonton: 3.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+29.5% more
Pittsburgh: 17.5
vs
Edmonton: 13.5
Power Play % (L5)
+3.4%
Edmonton: 26.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 23.1%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.8%
Edmonton: 53.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 51.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
3.0
6
PIT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 13.5
8.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
51.5 / 53.3
38.0 / 62.0
Hits
18.0 / 18.1
27.0 / 8.0
Power Play %
23.1 / 26.5
16.7 / 75.0
Shots on Goal
30.8 / 30.5
30.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 3.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
EDM
PIT
EDM
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
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