WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
18-10-4 | Road
0
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
19-9-5 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 5.00 | 0.844 | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.00
GAA
Ldr 0.00
0.844
Save %
Ldr 1.000
--
SO
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
WILD
100%
CAPITALS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
MIN By 1 goal
0.9%
MIN By 2-3 goals
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Minnesota
1
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
WSH @ MIN
0 - 5
Oct 17, 2025
MIN @ WSH
1 - 5
Mar 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
2 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
MIN @ WSH
4 - 3
Jan 23, 2024
WSH @ MIN
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.0%
Washington: 48.7%
vs
Minnesota: 45.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+42.4% more
Minnesota: 5.1
vs
Washington: 3.6
Power Play % (L5)
+18.1%
Minnesota: 32.2%
vs
Washington: 14.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
0
MIN Score
1.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.6 / 17.0
21.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
45.7 / 48.7
52.6 / 47.4
Hits
20.1 / 19.0
22.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
32.2 / 14.1
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.0 / 27.2
32.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 3.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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