Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Volunteers LOU @ TENN

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

9-1  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Food City Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

7-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
VOLUNTEERS
100%
CARDINALS --
VOLUNTEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Louisville)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 VolunteersTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

91.9%

Volunteers Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

LOU By 1-7 points

16.9%

LOU By 8-14 points

26.2%

TENN By 1-7 points

5.8%

TENN By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
63
LOUISVILLE
49
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
65
LOUISVILLE
78
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Volunteers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Volunteers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 LOU @ TENN 62 - 83
Nov 9, 2024 TENN @ LOU 77 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +21.1%
Louisville: 81.8% vs Tennessee: 60.8%
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Louisville: 19.2 vs Tennessee: 15.6
Blocks (L5) +10.2% more
Louisville: 3.8 vs Tennessee: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Louisville: 41.0% vs Tennessee: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 63.0 62
TENN Score 49.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 41.0 39.0 / 21.0
Assists 15.6 / 19.2 19.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.8 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 48.9 55.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 60.8 / 81.8 64.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 38.5 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.9 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.4 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
LOU
TENN
LOU
ML
46% 17-20
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
ATS
54% 20-17
71% 25-10
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
TTL
76% 28-9
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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