Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ Utah State WSU @ USU

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

6-6  |  Road

34
FINAL
Mon, Dec 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

6-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
@
Enoka Migao
KEY GAME

Enoka Migao

#0 | Linebacker
Player
Jack Stevens None-None
Enoka Migao None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
100%
📊
UTAH STATE
0%
WASHINGTON ST --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Utah State)
Washington StWSU (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

41.5%

Utah State Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

WSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

WSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

USU By 1-6 points

17.0%

USU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14
WASHINGTON STATE
17
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON STATE
31
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah State Loss
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah State Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah State (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim Utah State (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 31.0
A
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2025 WSU @ USU 34 - 21
Nov 9, 2024 USU @ WSU 28 - 49
Sep 4, 2021 USU @ WSU 26 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Utah State: 197.1 vs Washington State: 152.6
Total Yards (L5) +27.4% more
Utah State: 421.4 vs Washington State: 330.8
First Downs (L5) +14.9% more
Utah State: 22.7 vs Washington State: 19.8
Turnovers (L5) +30.7% more
Washington State: 1.4 vs Utah State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 14.0 34
USU Score 17.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 19.8 13.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 197.1 / 152.6 60.0 / 255.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 421.4 / 330.8 254.0 / 628.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
WSU
USU
WSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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