DETROIT
PISTONSDET
20-5 | Road
112
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
15-10 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
CELTICS
100%
PISTONS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
20.1%
DET By 8-14 points
27.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
8.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
87
DETROIT
Boston
75
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
101
DETROIT
Boston
124
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BOS @ DET
103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025
DET @ BOS
112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025
DET @ BOS
114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.2% more
Detroit: 10.3
vs
Boston: 8.3
Assists (L5)
+18.1% more
Detroit: 28.8
vs
Boston: 23.6
Turnovers (L5)
+18.0% more
Detroit: 15.8
vs
Boston: 12.9
Blocks (L5)
+16.1% more
Detroit: 5.7
vs
Boston: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
87.0
112
BOS Score
75.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 37.9
26.0 / 36.0
Assists
23.6 / 28.8
16.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.7
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 50.9
46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
82.3 / 77.9
70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 44.9
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.3 / 10.3
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 15.8
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
57%
61-46
55%
64-53
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
61-43-3
53%
60-54-3
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
TTL
56%
60-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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