TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
15-11 | Road
106
MIAMI
HEATMIA
14-11 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
HEAT
100%
RAPTORS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-7 points
26.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
24.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
111
TORONTO
Miami
105
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Toronto
105
TORONTO
Miami
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Raptors (-6)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.6% more
Toronto: 15.2
vs
Miami: 11.6
Steals (L5)
+16.1% more
Toronto: 8.6
vs
Miami: 7.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Toronto: 33.9%
vs
Miami: 31.0%
Blocks (L5)
+41.9% more
Miami: 5.9
vs
Toronto: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
111.0
106
MIA Score
105.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 33.9
29.0 / 40.0
Assists
25.7 / 26.8
20.0 / 33.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.1
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 44.9
42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 73.4
74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 40.5
45.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.6
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 15.2
19.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48%
46-50
55%
57-47
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
ATS
51%
49-47
61%
62-40-2
59%
48-34
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
62-42
100%
82-0
100%
87-0
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