DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
10-16 | Road
133
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
9-15 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
JAZZ
0%
MAVERICKS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
DAL By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
13.7%
UTAH By 1-7 points
26.2%
UTAH By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
111
DALLAS
Utah
112
UTAH
Simulated Score
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Utah
115
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jazz
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jazz (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Jazz (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026
UTAH @ DAL
122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025
DAL @ UTAH
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.1% more
Utah: 45.7
vs
Dallas: 38.7
Turnovers (L5)
+8.8% more
Utah: 14.1
vs
Dallas: 13.0
Blocks (L5)
+45.0% more
Dallas: 5.6
vs
Utah: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+21.9% more
Dallas: 8.7
vs
Utah: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
111.0
133
UTAH Score
112.0
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 38.4
36.0 / 33.0
Assists
29.3 / 28.5
33.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.6
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 51.3
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 77.5
82.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
45.7 / 38.7
47.0 / 54.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 13.0
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
DAL
ML
60%
96-63
62%
63-39
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
ATS
68%
108-51
67%
68-34
48%
40-43
54%
44-37
TTL
75%
119-39-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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