Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Nuggets HOU @ DEN

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

16-6  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Dec 15 • 9:30 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

18-6  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

93.3%

Nuggets Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.3%

DEN By 1-7 points

4.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
HOUSTON
110
DENVER
Simulated Score
108
HOUSTON
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 HOU @ DEN 93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025 HOU @ DEN 115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025 HOU @ DEN 125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025 DEN @ HOU 112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025 DEN @ HOU 126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.9% more
Houston: 4.8 vs Denver: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +37.5% more
Houston: 18.7 vs Denver: 11.7
Steals (L5) +14.8% more
Houston: 8.9 vs Denver: 7.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Houston: 46.7 vs Denver: 41.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 125.0 125
DEN Score 110.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.6 / 37.2 44.0 / 48.0
Assists 31.1 / 24.8 24.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.8 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 55.1 / 49.8 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 82.5 82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 46.7 38.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.9 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 18.7 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
HOU
DEN
HOU
ML
54% 57-48
61% 69-44
55% 47-39
59% 51-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
62% 70-43
55% 47-39
59% 51-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
51% 58-55
100% 86-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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