FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
16-13-2 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
18-11-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Steven Santini
#64 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Steven Santini | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
LIGHTNING
0%
PANTHERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
FLA By 1 goal
12.1%
FLA By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lightning
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025
TB @ FLA
0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+15.7%
Tampa Bay: 30.4%
vs
Florida: 14.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.8% more
Tampa Bay: 32.4
vs
Florida: 28.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.0% more
Florida: 12.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.2
Hits (L5)
+10.2% more
Florida: 23.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.0
5
TB Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.2 / 12.9
3.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.1 / 45.6
53.2 / 46.8
Hits
21.2 / 23.7
33.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
30.4 / 14.7
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
32.4 / 28.2
28.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.9
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
FLA
TB
FLA
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
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