Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Horned Frogs UIW @ TCU

INCARNATE WORD

CARDINALSUIW

5-5  |  Road

65
FINAL
Mon, Dec 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Schollmaier Arena
View Odds Details →

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

6-3  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
HORNED FROGS
0%
CARDINALS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (TCU)
CardinalsUIW (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.1%

Horned Frogs Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TCU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

UIW By 1-7 points

0.1%

UIW By 8-14 points

0.0%

TCU By 1-7 points

0.8%

TCU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
53
INCARNATE WORD
84
TCU
Simulated Score
62
INCARNATE WORD
88
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Horned Frogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Horned Frogs (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Horned Frogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2025 UIW @ TCU 65 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +148.2% more
TCU: 4.1 vs Incarnate Word: 1.6
Steals (L5) +28.9% more
TCU: 8.7 vs Incarnate Word: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
TCU: 12.7 vs Incarnate Word: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Incarnate Word: 72.8% vs TCU: 67.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIW Score 53.0 65
TCU Score 84.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 34.8 19.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.1 / 13.7 11.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.1 / 1.6 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 46.2 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 72.8 72.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.0 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.8 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.3 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
UIW
TCU
UIW
ML
74% 26-9
47% 14-16
63% 19-11
76% 22-7
ATS
74% 26-9
53% 16-14
63% 19-11
77% 23-7
TTL
66% 23-12
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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