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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

17-7  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 8:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

14-11  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
LAKERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
255.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Phoenix)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

30.9%

Suns Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

LAL By 1-7 points

18.6%

LAL By 8-14 points

8.0%

PHX By 1-7 points

27.2%

PHX By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
125
LOS ANGELES
130
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
109
LOS ANGELES
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.0 Loss
Proj Total: 255.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +134.5% more
Phoenix: 11.2 vs Los Angeles: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +22.1% more
Phoenix: 14.9 vs Los Angeles: 12.2
Blocks (L5) +62.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.9 vs Phoenix: 2.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.4% more
Los Angeles: 42.8 vs Phoenix: 38.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 125.0 116
PHX Score 130.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 40.2 35.0 / 19.0
Assists 23.6 / 24.0 29.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.2 / 5.9 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 48.6 49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 76.4 84.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 42.8 37.0 / 54.0
Steals 11.2 / 4.8 11.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 12.2 20.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
LAL
PHX
LAL
ML
57% 60-45
61% 68-43
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 59-43-3
61% 67-43-1
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 61-42-2
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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