Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Catamounts MRMK @ UVM

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

6-6  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Patrick Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

VERMONT

CATAMOUNTSUVM

6-5  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
CATAMOUNTS
100%
WARRIORS --
CATAMOUNTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Merrimack)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 CatamountsUVM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

61.8%

Catamounts Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-7 points

27.2%

MRMK By 8-14 points

20.1%

UVM By 1-7 points

21.6%

UVM By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MERRIMACK
62
VERMONT
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
72
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Catamounts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 MRMK @ UVM 59 - 66
Nov 9, 2024 UVM @ MRMK 51 - 65
Nov 6, 2023 MRMK @ UVM 55 - 67
Dec 4, 2022 UVM @ MRMK 66 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +69.3% more
Merrimack: 6.1 vs Vermont: 1.9
Steals (L5) +40.0% more
Merrimack: 8.1 vs Vermont: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Merrimack: 80.3% vs Vermont: 71.4%
Turnovers (L5) +37.5% more
Vermont: 10.5 vs Merrimack: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 65.0 59
UVM Score 62.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 31.8 18.0 / 27.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.0 9.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.9 / 6.1 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 41.4 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 80.3 83.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 25.9 34.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.8 / 8.1 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 7.7 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
UVM
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
UVM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
MRMK
UVM
MRMK
ML
56% 19-15
47% 16-18
65% 22-12
65% 22-12
ATS
62% 21-13
53% 18-16
65% 22-12
65% 22-12
TTL
47% 16-18
62% 21-13
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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