Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Mountaineers HPU @ APP

HIGH POINT

PANTHERSHPU

8-2  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Tarlton Complex
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

6-5  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
PANTHERS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (App State)
PanthersHPU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

11.5%

Mountaineers Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

HPU By 1-7 points

8.0%

HPU By 8-14 points

2.2%

APP By 1-7 points

20.1%

APP By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
HIGH POINT
79
APP STATE
Simulated Score
72
HIGH POINT
75
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 HPU @ APP 78 - 86
Dec 14, 2024 APP @ HPU 59 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +69.5% more
App State: 4.0 vs High Point: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +27.1% more
App State: 45.2 vs High Point: 35.6
Turnovers (L5) +20.7% more
App State: 12.0 vs High Point: 9.9
Steals (L5) +56.0% more
High Point: 10.7 vs App State: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HPU Score 67.0 78
APP Score 79.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.7 / 36.3 48.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.9 / 15.0 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.4 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 48.4 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 59.3 / 75.3 73.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 35.6 45.0 / 45.0
Steals 4.7 / 10.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.9 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HPU Advantage
31-5-0 (86.1%)
Margin: 18.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HPU
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 18.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HPU
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +1.4
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
HPU
APP
HPU
ML
62% 20-12
80% 28-7
59% 19-13
80% 28-7
ATS
59% 19-13
71% 25-10
59% 19-13
80% 28-7
TTL
69% 22-10
66% 23-12
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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