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FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

5-6  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 4:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

9-2  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
EAGLES --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Mexico)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Lobos Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

FGCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FGCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNM By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
FLORIDA GULF COAST
80
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
68
FLORIDA GULF COAST
82
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 FGCU @ UNM 59 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +108.8% more
New Mexico: 4.5 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 2.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
New Mexico: 39.6% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
New Mexico: 49.6% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 47.1%
Steals (L5) +32.7% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 10.4 vs New Mexico: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 79.0 59
UNM Score 80.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 33.0 21.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.7 / 16.1 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 47.1 37.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 80.2 89.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 36.0 44.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.0 / 10.4 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.8 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
FGCU
UNM
FGCU
ML
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
74% 25-9
67% 22-11
ATS
57% 21-16
61% 20-13
74% 25-9
67% 22-11
TTL
41% 15-22
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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