UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
15-15-3 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
14-8-8 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sergei Murashov
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 3.98 | 0.750 | -- |
| Sergei Murashov | None-None | 4.99 | 0.861 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.98 Ldr
GAA
4.99
0.750
Save %
Ldr 0.861
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
0%
PENGUINS
100%
MAMMOTH
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
UTA By 1 goal
19.7%
UTA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PIT By 1 goal
12.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
3
UTAH
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Utah
2
UTAH
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mammoth
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
PIT @ UTA
4 - 3
Dec 14, 2025
UTA @ PIT
5 - 4
Jan 29, 2025
PIT @ UTA
3 - 2
Nov 23, 2024
UTA @ PIT
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+10.3% more
Utah: 20.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 18.0
Takeaways (L5)
+53.0% more
Pittsburgh: 6.1
vs
Utah: 4.0
Shots on Goal (L5)
+33.2% more
Pittsburgh: 38.3
vs
Utah: 28.7
Power Play % (L5)
+8.6%
Pittsburgh: 34.7%
vs
Utah: 26.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
3.0
5
PIT Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 16.9
17.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
52.2 / 49.5
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
18.0 / 20.1
18.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
34.7 / 26.1
0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
38.3 / 28.7
16.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
6.1 / 4.0
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
UTA
PIT
UTA
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
ATS
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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